Vista will suffer more than XP.

When XP launched in 2001, there's no good crack for XP in the first year.
That early Russian crack just make system unstale.
There were customers buying geninue XP until one day, Shanghai City
Govenment had a deal with Microsoft, then leaked both the XP and Volume
License Key(s) to the public.

The stupid KMS is not better than VLK. Many IT professional in China can
easily host a KMS server (with stolen KMS key) and start activate Vista
Business edition as early as BEFORE Vista come to the retail market...
Without a crack, perfect activation. KMS is disaster.

..... However, what confuse me is that Microsoft should already known that in
China, XP VLK piracy were indeed done by dishonest Govenment sectors and
Business partners. So now Microsoft should eliminate any kind of Volume
License in China. All Windows sold in China must be activated one by one
against servers in headquater USA.

And about Microsoft deal with branded PC manufacturer, pre-installed
Windows???

Not many Chinese buy brand PC, most prefer DIY. Even for the brand PCs, only
top-end models from few brands pre-installed Windows.
The majority brand PCs still no Windows.